Short Term Fluctuations of Lake Erie Water Levels and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation
نویسنده
چکیده
This study assesses the relationship between short term fluctuations of Lake Erie water levels and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using data collected from May 1978 to May 1997. After standardizing the collected data, graphical and Box-Jenkins time series techniques are utilized to assess the temporal interrelationship of the Southern Oscillation Index and Lake Erie water level variables. The statistical results demonstrate that a first-order auto regressive m odel AR (1) provides the best fit for the data se ts of the analyzed variables. Both the graphical and statistical results suggest that short term Lake Erie water levels are fluctuating in response to the two ENS O phases, El N iño and La Niñ a. Negative values of the Southern Oscillation Inde x are related to higher lake levels while positive values are associated with lower lake levels.
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